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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.

TBL winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL1611516327
TBL11411327434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:48ATLNik AntropovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:34TBLSteve DownieAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Mattias Ohlund · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:44TBLMike LundinAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:54ATLMarty ReasonerAssists: Ron Hainsey, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:04TBLAlex TanguayAssists: Steve Downie, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:45TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
  7. P3 16:50ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Nik Antropov, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 9:16ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 16:10TBLJames Wright: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 9:17ATLBryan Little: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 9:17TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 13:59TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 0:00TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 11:36ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 11:36TBLJames Wright: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 11:36ATLBoris Valabik: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 11:36TBLDavid Hale: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 11:36TBLZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 11:36ATLBoris Valabik: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLTBL
27Shots on goal34
2.5Expected goals2.6
58Shot attempts54
32Faceoffs won37
3Power plays1
13Penalty minutes17
17Hits20
12Blocked shots19
8Giveaways11
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.6 xGATL 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 59/100 · #515 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.

TBL winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).