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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 27, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR2917111427
PIT1411317324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:28TORLuke SchennAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:01PITMatt CookeUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:32TORLee StempniakPPAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:48PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Bill Guerin · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:07TORJason BlakeAssists: Lee Stempniak, Ian White · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:45PITMike RuppAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. P3 18:38TORIan WhiteGWGAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 7:41PITBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 10:23TORIan White: Delaying game2 min
  3. P1 15:35PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 7:06TORMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 1:19PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 12:14PITMatt Cooke: Elbowing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Primeau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORPIT
27Shots on goal24
1.7Expected goals1.9
53Shot attempts53
22Faceoffs won36
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
21Hits29
16Blocked shots19
6Giveaways9
1Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 1.9 xGTOR 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #146 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.25 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).