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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 30, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Atlanta Thrashers 0, Boston Bruins 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

0

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 93% of the time.

BOS winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL070605018
BOS31311205430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:33BOSByron BitzGWGAssists: Shawn Thornton, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:56BOSMarco SturmPPAssists: Marc Savard, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.50 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:50BOSSteve BeginAssists: Derek Morris, Marc Savard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P2 14:56BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Mark Recchi, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 11:46ATLEvander Kane: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 18:16BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 3:24ATLColby Armstrong: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:37ATLNik Antropov: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 6:01BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:34ATLChristoph Schubert: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 12:54ATLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
  8. P3 6:44BOSAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 18:20BOSDaniel Paille: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLBOS
18Shots on goal30
1.2Expected goals4.3
45Shot attempts54
27Faceoffs won22
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
27Hits19
10Blocked shots14
8Giveaways2
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 4.3 xGATL 1.2 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1203 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.48 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 93% of the time.

BOS winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).