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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 1, 2010·Fenway Park, BostonOutdoor game

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Overtime

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.

BOS winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHI061120502125
BOS09061912226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:42PHIDanny SyvretAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P3 17:42BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Derek Morris, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. OT 1:57BOSMarco SturmGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 12:01PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 12:01BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:22PHIOskars Bartulis: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 15:22BOSDavid Krejci: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 10:16BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 1:30BOSJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 4:45PHIDaniel Carcillo: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 16:08PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 19:14PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIBOS
25Shots on goal26
1.9Expected goals1.9
46Shot attempts60
23Faceoffs won31
2Power plays3
13Penalty minutes11
30Hits29
20Blocked shots12
6Giveaways4
7Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 1.9 xGPHI 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #468 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.84 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 50% of the time.

BOS winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).