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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 1, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Buffalo Sabres

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 77% of the time.

BUF winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
ATL0103170404335
BUF021112911423

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:56ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Nik Antropov, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:52ATLEvander KaneAssists: Anssi Salmela, Rich Peverley · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P2 16:29ATLBryan LittlePPAssists: Todd White, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–0
  4. P2 17:09BUFJochen HechtAssists: Toni Lydman, Steve Montador · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 2:19BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Jochen Hecht, Adam Mair · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:15BUFJochen HechtAssists: Adam Mair, Tim Connolly · Tip-in, 0.36 xG3–3
  7. OT 4:02BUFDerek RoyGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:55ATLMarty Reasoner: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 13:23BUFCraig Rivet: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 19:27BUFSteve Montador: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:54ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 16:23BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:06ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P3 7:10ATLNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 7:10BUFTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 7:10BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 10:12BUFToni Lydman: Interference2 min
  11. P3 18:09BUFJochen Hecht: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLBUF
35Shots on goal23
3.7Expected goals2.1
52Shot attempts47
28Faceoffs won30
6Power plays3
8Penalty minutes14
15Hits15
12Blocked shots5
16Giveaways12
1Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.1 xGATL 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #66 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.13 · 7 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 77% of the time.

BUF winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).