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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Calgary Flames 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.

CGY winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR1807010125
CGY01021817335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:36TORJason BlakeAssists: Wayne Primeau, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:35CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Daymond Langkow · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:27CGYCurtis GlencrossPPGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Daymond Langkow · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:09CGYCurtis GlencrossENAssists: Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 4:18CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 17:56CGYNigel Dawes: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 17:56TORNiklas Hagman: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 1:49TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 8:08TORJason Blake: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 11:10TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  7. P2 16:23CGYCraig Conroy: Holding2 min
  8. P2 0:00CGYDaymond Langkow: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 11:59CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Primeau won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORCGY
25Shots on goal35
1.4Expected goals2.5
51Shot attempts61
36Faceoffs won36
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
11Hits13
15Blocked shots15
9Giveaways10
10Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.5 xGTOR 1.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #826 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.

CGY winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).