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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 2, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Detroit Red Wings 4, Phoenix Coyotes 1

Away

Detroit Red Wings

4

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.

PHX winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET112114210436
PHX011114011136

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:44DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:53PHXMatthew LombardiPPAssists: Robert Lang, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 19:41DETTomas HolmstromGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:51DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:08DETDarren HelmENAssists: Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 7:15PHXRadim Vrbata: Holding2 min
  2. P1 8:58DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
  3. P1 12:35PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 4:15DETBrett Lebda: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 4:57DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:09PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 16:19DETPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
  8. P3 4:14PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETPHX
36Shots on goal36
3.7Expected goals2.6
55Shot attempts52
31Faceoffs won22
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
16Hits31
9Blocked shots5
1Giveaways2
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.6 xGDET 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #788 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.

PHX winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).