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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 5, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.

PIT winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL0162809233
PIT012312213537

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:39PITKris LetangAssists: Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:57ATLJim SlaterAssists: Chris Thorburn, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:12PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:41PITRuslan FedotenkoPPGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P2 16:14ATLJim SlaterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:32PITLuca CaputiAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
  7. P3 15:38PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Brent Johnson · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 13:45ATLEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 10:41ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 12:55ATLRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 18:14PITAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 1:19PITMark Eaton: Interference2 min
  6. P3 18:42ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against White
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLPIT
33Shots on goal37
1.9Expected goals3.3
57Shot attempts56
35Faceoffs won22
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
25Hits23
9Blocked shots12
4Giveaways12
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.3 xGATL 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #556 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.30 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.

PIT winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).