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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 7, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Chicago Blackhawks 5, Boston Bruins 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

BOS winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI21721217536
BOS280508221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:30BOSBlake WheelerPPAssists: Derek Morris, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:02BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:49CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:04CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Colin Fraser, Ben Eager · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
  5. P2 1:42CHIAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–2
  6. P2 10:13CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Ben Eager, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
  7. P3 17:49CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 3:47CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:25BOSDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 13:25CHIColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 19:40BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:47CHIBen Eager: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 6:47BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 14:22CHIBrian Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 2:48BOSJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 2:48CHIColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 8:46CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Savard won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIBOS
36Shots on goal21
2.8Expected goals2.3
56Shot attempts47
32Faceoffs won29
1Power plays3
15Penalty minutes11
21Hits31
16Blocked shots11
2Giveaways6
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.3 xGCHI 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #353 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.24 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

BOS winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).