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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 8, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.

BUF winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR018010222250
BUF21011209331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:08BUFTim KennedyPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:39BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P2 7:30BUFTyler MyersPPGWGAssists: Tim Connolly, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
  4. P3 2:11TORMatt StajanAssists: Luke Schenn, Nikolay Kulemin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
  5. P3 17:17TORJohn MitchellAssists: Lee Stempniak, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:25BUFTim Connolly: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 6:57BUFToni Lydman: Interference2 min
  3. P1 12:02BUFRyan Miller: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 16:36TORRickard Wallin: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 16:36TORRickard Wallin: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 7:06TORIan White: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:50BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORBUF
50Shots on goal31
3.7Expected goals2.7
79Shot attempts58
28Faceoffs won26
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
26Hits22
11Blocked shots12
11Giveaways21
4Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.7 xGTOR 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #488 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.

BUF winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).