Tue, Jan 12, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 316 | 013 | 436 |
| TBL | 415 | 15 | 216 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:03TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brandon Bochenski, Kurtis Foster · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 14:05WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Jeff Schultz · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 17:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brandon Bochenski, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 18:35TBLStephane VeilleuxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 1:34WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–4
- P2 7:44WSHEric FehrAssists: Brendan Morrison, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 12:08WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P2 17:28TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brandon Bochenski · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 4:00TBLKurtis FosterAssists: Victor Hedman, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.03 xG4–6
- P3 9:54TBLJeff HalpernPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–7
Penalties (22)
- P1 10:39WSHBrooks Laich: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 15:44WSHTom Poti: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:34TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:13WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:17WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:12WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:51WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:51TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:00WSHMatt Bradley: Instigator2 min
- P3 14:00WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:00WSHMatt Bradley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:00TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:00TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:00TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:17WSHDavid Steckel: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:17TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:50TBLAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:26TBLMattias Ohlund: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:23WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Szczechura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).