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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 14, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Carolina Hurricanes 1, Detroit Red Wings 3

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.

DET winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR013011114138
DET17116112335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:30DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Drew Miller · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:34DETDrew MillerPPGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Daniel Cleary · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
  3. P3 7:17CARTom KostopoulosAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.37 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:40DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Todd Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 10:14CARJerome Samson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 15:32DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 1:25CARJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 1:50CARAaron Ward: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 7:40CARJoni Pitkanen: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 8:14DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 18:09CARTim Gleason: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 18:09CARNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARDET
38Shots on goal35
2.3Expected goals3.8
56Shot attempts69
22Faceoffs won33
2Power plays5
12Penalty minutes4
29Hits22
19Blocked shots7
10Giveaways14
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.8 xGCAR 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1018 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.85 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.

DET winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).