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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 16, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vancouver Canucks 6

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT181709224
VAN2841405627

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:32PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:42VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:37VANAlexandre BurrowsSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:22VANMikael SamuelssonGWGAssists: Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:04VANJannik HansenAssists: Henrik Sedin, Sami Salo · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–4
  6. P2 3:56VANWillie MitchellAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
  7. P2 11:54PITMatt CookeAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
  8. P2 13:08VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Mason Raymond · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 15:17PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 15:17VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 15:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 18:03VANKyle Wellwood: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 5:53PITEric Godard: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 12:36PITMax Talbot: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 19:17PITTyler Kennedy: Holding2 min
  8. P3 6:03VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
  9. P3 9:36PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 9:36VANDarcy Hordichuk: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 9:36PITEric Godard: Holding2 min
  12. P3 9:36PITEric Godard: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 12:42PITEvgeni Malkin: Boarding2 min
  14. P3 12:42VANTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 13:49VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
  16. P3 18:52PITPascal Dupuis: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITVAN
24Shots on goal27
1.9Expected goals2.2
44Shot attempts54
24Faceoffs won29
3Power plays6
28Penalty minutes12
11Hits20
13Blocked shots14
4Giveaways13
8Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.2 xGPIT 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #711 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.92 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).