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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Buffalo Sabres 7, Phoenix Coyotes 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

7

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.

PHX winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF11041426730
PHX0411219225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:37BUFTyler MyersAssists: Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:44BUFChris ButlerAssists: Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:01BUFPatrick KaletaGWGAssists: Steve Montador, Adam Mair · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
  4. P2 14:07PHXShane DoanAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
  5. P2 14:31BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
  6. P2 18:23BUFJochen HechtAssists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
  7. P3 2:47BUFThomas VanekAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.21 xG6–1
  8. P3 10:36PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Petr Prucha · Slap, 0.02 xG6–2
  9. P3 18:13BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht · Backhand, 0.39 xG7–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 11:21PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 4:50PHXScottie Upshall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P2 10:43BUFSteve Montador: Holding2 min
  4. P3 3:57PHXPaul Bissonnette: High sticking2 min
  5. P3 4:16BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 4:16PHXVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 7:32BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 13:17BUFClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFPHX
30Shots on goal25
2.9Expected goals2.4
58Shot attempts50
26Faceoffs won32
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
21Hits31
13Blocked shots14
3Giveaways3
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.4 xGBUF 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #722 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.

PHX winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).