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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 18, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Nashville Predators 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.

NSH winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR3110615422
NSH0819213330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:02TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:12TORAlexei PonikarovskyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
  3. P1 9:00TORMatt StajanAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Luke Schenn · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P2 17:38NSHMarcel GocAssists: J-P Dumont, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
  5. P3 4:21NSHCody FransonAssists: Steve Sullivan · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 6:19NSHRyan JonesAssists: Nick Spaling, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. P3 14:12TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 9:39TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:30NSHMarcel Goc: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 3:20TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 6:25NSHRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 17:29NSHKevin Klein: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Goc
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNSH
22Shots on goal30
2.2Expected goals2.1
36Shot attempts62
21Faceoffs won24
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
14Hits21
17Blocked shots5
8Giveaways16
12Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.1 xGTOR 2.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #149 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 7 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.

NSH winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).