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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 29, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 5 (OT)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Overtime

Home

New Jersey Devils

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

NJD winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TOR111192702429
NJD282140712531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:11TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Jamal Mayers, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:10NJDZach PariseAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:40NJDZach PariseAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:22NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Travis Zajac, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:41TORColton OrrAssists: Jamal Mayers, Wayne Primeau · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:19NJDPatrick DavisAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Colin White · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 14:59TORAlexei PonikarovskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
  8. P3 18:29TORMatt StajanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.29 xG4–4
  9. OT 4:14NJDTravis ZajacPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Brian Rolston · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 10:23NJDBryce Salvador: Holding2 min
  2. P2 4:10TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 17:57NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Interference2 min
  4. OT 3:52TORLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNJD
29Shots on goal31
2.6Expected goals2.1
52Shot attempts48
27Faceoffs won23
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
23Hits23
11Blocked shots13
9Giveaways11
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.1 xGTOR 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #64 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.20 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

NJD winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).