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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 1, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Buffalo Sabres 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.

PIT winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF212111111434
PIT18410013531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:47PITMark LetestuAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:15BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 6:03BUFThomas VanekAssists: Derek Roy, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:32BUFTim KennedyAssists: Mike Grier, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
  5. P2 10:53PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P2 14:06PITJordan StaalAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P2 17:30PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
  8. P2 18:55PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P3 17:00BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Tim Connolly, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:17PITNick Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 8:52PITRuslan Fedotenko: Interference2 min
  3. P2 4:58PITBill Guerin: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 9:52BUFChris Butler: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 14:48PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 14:48BUFThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 17:07BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 17:07PITBill Guerin: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 1:41BUFJochen Hecht: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 16:14PITSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 17:56PITBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFPIT
34Shots on goal31
2.8Expected goals2.5
65Shot attempts51
23Faceoffs won26
5Power plays2
8Penalty minutes14
14Hits26
10Blocked shots18
2Giveaways10
0Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.5 xGBUF 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #134 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.88 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.

PIT winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).