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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 1, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Calgary Flames 0

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0718212327
CGY070308018

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:15PHIMike RichardsGWGAssists: Simon Gagne, Daniel Brière · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P3 1:49PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Arron Asham, Oskars Bartulis · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P3 17:44PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Chris Pronger · Slap, 0.33 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 7:46PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 10:35CGYCory Sarich: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 7:34CGYJamie Lundmark: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 7:38PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 8:28CGYJamal Mayers: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 17:39CGYRene Bourque: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHICGY
27Shots on goal18
2.3Expected goals1.5
48Shot attempts53
24Faceoffs won25
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
14Hits16
15Blocked shots8
3Giveaways11
5Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.5 xGPHI 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1153 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).