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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.

BUF winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS21101108042334
BUF017214012021245

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:51BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Marc Savard, Miroslav Satan · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:58BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Zdeno Chara, Derek Morris · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:35BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:35BUFTyler MyersAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. BUF Jason Pominville scored
  2. 2. BOS Marco Sturm scored
  3. 3. BUF Jochen Hecht stopped
  4. 4. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
  5. 5. BUF Tim Connolly stopped
  6. 6. BOS Marc Savard stopped
  7. 7. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
  8. 8. BOS David Krejci scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P2 2:54BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P2 2:54BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:54BUFCraig Rivet: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 3:46BOSSteve Begin: Holding2 min
  5. P2 9:52BUFPaul Gaustad: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P3 11:08BOSDennis Wideman: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 14:16BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 14:16BUFAdam Mair: Fighting5 min
  9. OT 1:27BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSBUF
34Shots on goal45
3.5Expected goals3.1
67Shot attempts64
29Faceoffs won29
2Power plays3
16Penalty minutes14
26Hits39
7Blocked shots16
9Giveaways13
3Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.1 xGBOS 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #376 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.

BUF winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).