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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 58% of the time.

COL winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
ATL1111161900336
COL1120621611435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:54ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:40COLBrett ClarkAssists: Paul Stastny, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:32ATLBryan LittleAssists: Marty Reasoner, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:19ATLNik AntropovAssists: Bryan Little, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
  5. P3 8:34COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
  6. P3 14:31COLChris DurnoAssists: Cody McLeod, Kyle Quincey · Backhand, 0.37 xG3–3
  7. OT 0:09COLKyle CumiskeyGWGAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:14ATLChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
  2. P1 14:50COLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
  3. P1 17:13ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 3:07ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 7:18COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:51COLCraig Anderson: Diving2 min
  7. P2 8:51ATLTodd White: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P2 10:18COLBrett Clark: Holding2 min
  9. P2 15:57COLScott Hannan: Interference2 min
  10. P3 15:45ATLChris Thorburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCOL
36Shots on goal35
3.3Expected goals2.8
66Shot attempts61
28Faceoffs won31
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
13Hits14
14Blocked shots16
7Giveaways14
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.8 xGATL 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #95 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.29 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 7% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 58% of the time.

COL winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).