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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 14, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Rangers 5

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.

NYR winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL2701309229
NYR0741016523

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:33TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:03TBLSteve DownieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Tanguay · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:40NYRSean AveryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:07NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Marc Staal, Erik Christensen · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:06NYRErik ChristensenGWGAssists: Vinny Prospal, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P2 13:52NYRErik ChristensenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:45NYRChris DruryENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 5:18NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:18TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:23TBLAlex Tanguay: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P1 13:07TBLKurtis Foster: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P1 13:56NYRErik Christensen: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P1 15:43NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 15:43TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 4:43TBLKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 5:34NYRMichal Rozsival: Boarding2 min
  10. P2 15:56TBLMike Lundin: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 0:00NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 0:00TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 2:01NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 17:07TBLMartin St. Louis: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 17:07NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLNYR
29Shots on goal23
3.2Expected goals3.7
55Shot attempts46
38Faceoffs won28
3Power plays4
22Penalty minutes20
33Hits29
8Blocked shots15
4Giveaways3
3Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.7 xGTBL 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #341 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.35 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.

NYR winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).