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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Florida Panthers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 4

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.

ATL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA213010013236
ATL28216015439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:34ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:43ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Jim Slater, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 5:58FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, David Booth · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–2
  4. P1 10:45FLADavid BoothAssists: Bryan McCabe, Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:33ATLTodd WhitePPGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:47ATLPavel KubinaAssists: Toby Enstrom, Todd White · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:42ATLBryan Little: Boarding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:24FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 11:14ATLChristoph Schubert: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 13:22FLABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 17:36ATLMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
  6. P1 18:04ATLRon Hainsey: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 1:02ATLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
  8. P2 6:47FLACory Stillman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  9. P2 12:46FLABryan Allen: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 16:53ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 5:04ATLPavel Kubina: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 9:03FLANick Tarnasky: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 18:36ATLJohnny Oduya: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Slater
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAATL
36Shots on goal39
4.1Expected goals3.0
52Shot attempts71
24Faceoffs won30
8Power plays5
10Penalty minutes16
17Hits21
22Blocked shots6
4Giveaways4
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.0 xGFLA 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #440 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.25 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.

ATL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).