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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 1

Away

New York Rangers

4

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR094709425
OTT1501109125

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:51OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:22NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Erik Christensen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:44NYRBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:56NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Sean Avery, Erik Christensen · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:46NYRSean AveryAssists: Enver Lisin, Wade Redden · Tip-in, 0.22 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 7:07OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 1:48NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
  3. P3 6:11NYRMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
  4. P3 19:41NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min
  5. P3 19:41NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYROTT
25Shots on goal25
1.9Expected goals1.9
53Shot attempts53
21Faceoffs won31
1Power plays3
16Penalty minutes2
26Hits31
15Blocked shots19
4Giveaways12
8Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.9 xGNYR 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #884 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).