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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 2, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Buffalo Sabres 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.

PIT winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF0916113228
PIT1141717328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:58PITSergei GoncharPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:13PITPascal DupuisAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:44BUFToni LydmanAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Craig Rivet · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:03PITRuslan FedotenkoGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:21BUFDerek RoyAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Chris Butler · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 10:35BUFCraig Rivet: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 10:35PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 13:21BUFTim Kennedy: Boarding2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:06PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
  5. P2 17:17PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 1:13BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 3:54PITRuslan Fedotenko: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 6:08PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 6:08BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 7:13PITSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFPIT
28Shots on goal28
2.3Expected goals2.7
55Shot attempts63
22Faceoffs won26
4Power plays2
11Penalty minutes15
21Hits30
16Blocked shots19
3Giveaways3
0Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.7 xGBUF 2.3 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #807 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.

PIT winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).