Wed, Mar 3, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 116 | 213 | 340 |
| BUF | 011 | 14 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:23WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Eric Fehr, Jeff Schultz · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 16:23BUFJochen HechtAssists: Derek Roy, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 10:28WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:19WSHBoyd GordonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:17WSHJeff Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:06WSHShaone Morrisonn: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:00BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min
- P1 16:53BUFJason Pominville: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Fleischmann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).