Thu, Mar 4, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 19 | 211 | 429 |
| WSH | 114 | 29 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10WSHEric FehrUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:55TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:17WSHMike KnubleAssists: Brooks Laich, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:21WSHMike KnubleAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 9:03TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 10:11WSHScott WalkerAssists: Mike Green, Boyd Gordon · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 10:35TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Teddy Purcell, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:28TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Mattias Ohlund, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 13:09WSHScott WalkerGWGAssists: Mike Green, Jason Chimera · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:26TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:45WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:29TBLMark Parrish: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:10WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:38WSHJeff Schultz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:08WSHMike Green: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:14WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:04WSHTom Poti: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:48TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).