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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 5, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

New Jersey Devils 3, Calgary Flames 5

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.

CGY winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD190828325
CGY0531129525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:37NJDZach PariseAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:43CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Chris Higgins, Ales Kotalik · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:41CGYCurtis GlencrossSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:04CGYEric NystromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
  5. P3 9:29CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Rene Bourque, Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.45 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:02CGYDavid MossAssists: Niklas Hagman, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–5
  7. P3 16:08NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–5
  8. P3 17:26NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Patrik Elias, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:51CGYCory Sarich: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 14:34CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 4:48CGYSteve Staios: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P2 5:48NJDZach Parise: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 9:10CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 9:10NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 10:34CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 10:34NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 15:41CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDCGY
25Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals3.3
52Shot attempts52
27Faceoffs won31
4Power plays1
12Penalty minutes18
12Hits19
17Blocked shots13
6Giveaways11
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.3 xGNJD 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #367 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.

CGY winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).