Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 6, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Dallas Stars 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

PIT winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1829013330
PIT110314210634

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:11PITJordan StaalAssists: Matt Cooke, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:05DALMike RibeiroAssists: Brandon Segal, Stephane Robidas · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:29DALBrandon SegalAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 2:28DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 4:01PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
  6. P2 9:10PITPascal DupuisAssists: Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
  7. P2 16:47PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Jordan Leopold · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
  8. P3 1:35PITSidney CrosbySHAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:13PITAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.19 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 6:52DALNicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:40PITTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 18:05PITMax Talbot: Interference2 min
  4. P2 5:59DALMike Ribeiro: Holding2 min
  5. P2 18:08DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 18:08PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 18:57PITJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 19:54PITSergei Gonchar: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 2:12DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 6:34PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 11:50PITRuslan Fedotenko: Interference2 min
  12. P3 14:44DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min · PPG
  13. P3 15:15PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 15:15DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 16:05DALJames Neal: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Modano won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALPIT
30Shots on goal34
2.8Expected goals2.4
55Shot attempts69
35Faceoffs won38
6Power plays5
20Penalty minutes22
23Hits30
20Blocked shots14
4Giveaways6
0Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.4 xGDAL 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #144 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.80 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.

PIT winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).