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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.

PHI winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR07111010128
PHI1827010325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:22PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:55TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Jeff Finger · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:09PHISimon GagneGWGAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:25PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 7:52TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 7:52TORColton Orr: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 11:23TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 12:26TORColton Orr: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P1 17:49PHIDarroll Powe: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 19:49TORViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 5:26PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 13:53TORJamie Lundmark: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 13:53PHIArron Asham: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 17:24PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 17:24TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 0:28PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 0:28TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 4:15PHIJeff Carter: Holding2 min
  15. P3 8:07TORJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 8:50TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 8:50PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 10:48TORViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
  19. P3 14:00PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORPHI
28Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals3.8
55Shot attempts61
37Faceoffs won21
4Power plays6
33Penalty minutes19
19Hits22
15Blocked shots14
9Giveaways10
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.8 xGTOR 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHITOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #978 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.

PHI winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).