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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 10, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Dallas Stars 3, Buffalo Sabres 5

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 84% of the time.

BUF winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL390506320
BUF316115112543

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:55BUFTyler MyersAssists: Jochen Hecht, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:59DALToby PetersenAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:49BUFMark MancariAssists: Craig Rivet, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P1 12:28DALSteve OttAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P1 17:56DALJamie BennAssists: Karlis Skrastins, Mike Modano · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P1 19:03BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tyler Myers, Tim Connolly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. P2 10:05BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Mark Mancari, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:42BUFDerek RoyENAssists: Jochen Hecht, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.56 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:45DALMike Modano: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 9:49BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  3. P1 15:30DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
  4. P2 6:52BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 6:52DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 19:00BUFHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALBUF
20Shots on goal43
1.9Expected goals4.2
41Shot attempts75
25Faceoffs won26
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
17Hits17
21Blocked shots12
7Giveaways6
1Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.2 xGDAL 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #322 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 84% of the time.

BUF winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).