Fri, Mar 12, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 210 | 010 | 327 |
| WSH | 18 | 014 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:54WSHTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:11TBLBrandon BochenskiAssists: Todd Fedoruk, Mike Lundin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:30TBLMatt WalkerAssists: Stephane Veilleux, Nate Thompson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 15:12TBLVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Matt Walker, Teddy Purcell · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 11:09WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:38WSHMatt Bradley: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:05TBLPaul Szczechura: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:09TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:16TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:40TBLMatt Walker: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).