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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 15, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Edmonton Oilers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.

CBJ winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM05115212332
CBJ11018311529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:35CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:52EDMRobert NilssonAssists: Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:30CBJChris ClarkAssists: Kristian Huselius, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:40CBJMarc MethotAssists: Antoine Vermette, Kristian Huselius · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:07EDMDustin PennerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Aaron Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:36CBJKristian HuseliusGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett, Fedor Tyutin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
  7. P3 7:45EDMAaron JohnsonAssists: Robert Nilsson, Marc-Antoine Pouliot · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:05CBJAntoine VermetteENAssists: Kristian Huselius, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 4:10EDMGilbert Brule: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 10:52CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 13:34EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:34CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 16:12CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
  6. P1 16:44EDMTom Gilbert: Interference2 min
  7. P1 17:18CBJKris Russell: Interference2 min
  8. P2 8:48EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 12:30CBJMike Commodore: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCBJ
32Shots on goal29
2.1Expected goals2.8
61Shot attempts50
30Faceoffs won32
4Power plays2
11Penalty minutes13
23Hits22
12Blocked shots19
4Giveaways1
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.8 xGEDM 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #334 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.55 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.

CBJ winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).