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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 17, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 2

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

COL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY211112011334
COL0911619234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:12CGYRene BourqueSHAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:33CGYEric NystromAssists: Jamal Mayers, Curtis Glencross · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
  3. P2 6:55CGYRene BourquePPGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Ian White · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
  4. P2 13:44COLChris DurnoAssists: Matt Hendricks, Darcy Tucker · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:27COLMilan HejdukAssists: Paul Stastny, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:25CGYAles Kotalik: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 13:48COLChris Durno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P1 13:48COLChris Durno: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 13:48CGYSteve Staios: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 16:37COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 16:37CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 6:33COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:24COLTJ Galiardi: Boarding2 min
  9. P3 8:11CGYIan White: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 11:27COLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 14:47CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nystrom won the faceoff against O'Reilly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCOL
34Shots on goal34
2.9Expected goals2.5
52Shot attempts55
26Faceoffs won32
4Power plays3
13Penalty minutes15
23Hits18
12Blocked shots11
7Giveaways13
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.5 xGCGY 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #484 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.88 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

COL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).