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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 19, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

San Jose Sharks 3, Calgary Flames 4

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS0141826328
CGY2628010424

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:24CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:52CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:41SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:04CGYNigel DawesAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jamal Mayers · Backhand, 0.39 xG1–3
  5. P2 11:03CGYEric NystromGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jamal Mayers · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:01SJSManny MalhotraUnassisted · Backhand, 0.33 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:09SJSDan BoyleAssists: Logan Couture, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 1:18SJSKent Huskins: Holding2 min
  2. P1 11:41CGYDaymond Langkow: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 14:22CGYRene Bourque: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 5:43SJSBrad Staubitz: Holding2 min
  5. P2 12:18CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
  6. P2 19:56CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 19:56SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 12:47SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCGY
28Shots on goal24
2.0Expected goals2.8
52Shot attempts42
33Faceoffs won24
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
17Hits14
6Blocked shots16
7Giveaways10
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.8 xGSJS 2.0 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #366 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).