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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX1911109062335
DAL07114111001232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:59PHXPetr PruchaPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:23PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P2 3:45DALJamie BennAssists: Stephane Robidas, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
  4. P3 7:11DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Brad Richards, Brenden Morrow · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Brad Richards scored
  2. 2. PHX Wojtek Wolski stopped
  3. 3. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
  4. 4. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
  5. 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  6. 6. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
  7. 7. DAL Steve Ott stopped
  8. 8. PHX Adrian Aucoin scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 12:17DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
  2. P1 18:37DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:49DALJames Neal: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 15:31DALTrevor Daley: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 19:46PHXZbynek Michalek: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P3 1:22PHXAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min
  7. P3 2:33DALJames Neal: Interference2 min
  8. P3 4:55DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 5:11PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDAL
35Shots on goal32
3.0Expected goals2.0
70Shot attempts57
29Faceoffs won33
6Power plays3
6Penalty minutes12
24Hits30
13Blocked shots16
9Giveaways14
12Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.0 xGPHX 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #394 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).