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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 24, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

St. Louis Blues 2, Detroit Red Wings 4

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.

DET winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL11209111232
DET0628210424

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:39STLPaul KariyaAssists: David Backes, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:26DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:35DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:05STLJay McClementAssists: David Perron, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:11DETValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski, Jimmy Howard · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:48DETValtteri FilppulaENUnassisted · Snap, 0.66 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 6:06DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 16:41STLBrad Winchester: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P2 8:44STLBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 11:29DETBrad Stuart: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Backes
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLDET
32Shots on goal24
1.7Expected goals3.2
60Shot attempts53
21Faceoffs won25
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
23Hits28
16Blocked shots19
9Giveaways15
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.2 xGSTL 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #625 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.

DET winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).