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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Atlanta Thrashers 1 (OT)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.

ATL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TOR1100601212230
ATL16080600120

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:40ATLZach BogosianPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Ron Hainsey · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:45TORPhil KesselAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. OT 0:39TORMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 3:50ATLColby Armstrong: Interference2 min
  2. P1 7:45TORGarnet Exelby: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 7:45ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:46TORWayne Primeau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  5. P1 12:24ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 1:30TORGarnet Exelby: Boarding2 min
  7. P2 7:43ATLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 7:43TORViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 7:43ATLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 7:43TORViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Hanson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORATL
30Shots on goal20
2.9Expected goals1.8
63Shot attempts52
26Faceoffs won27
2Power plays2
10Penalty minutes10
20Hits16
20Blocked shots15
9Giveaways12
6Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.8 xGTOR 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #982 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.

ATL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).