Sat, Mar 27, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 19 | 09 | 123 |
| BUF | 38 | 310 | 18 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Craig Rivet, Mike Grier · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:02BUFDerek RoyPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 8:52BUFJochen HechtPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Chris Butler · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 6:57BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Derek Roy · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 9:45BUFDerek RoyAssists: Tim Kennedy, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 11:16BUFAdam MairAssists: Tyler Ennis, Matt Ellis · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–6
- P2 19:17TBLSteve DownieAssists: Mike Lundin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 6:10BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.04 xG1–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:35TBLVincent Lecavalier: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P1 6:35TBLVincent Lecavalier: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:19BUFToni Lydman: Interference2 min
- P2 19:59BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:16TBLAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).