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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 28, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New Jersey Devils 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.

PHI winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD08014111133
PHI2122716525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:53PHIMatt CarleAssists: Scott Hartnell, Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:18PHIVille LeinoGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:45PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
  4. P2 19:20PHILukas KrajicekAssists: Ian Laperriere, Blair Betts · Slap, 0.30 xG0–4
  5. P3 10:20NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Brian Rolston, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:52PHISimon GagneAssists: Ville Leino, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 6:06PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:06NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:28PHIArron Asham: Boarding2 min
  4. P1 18:47NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 1:02PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min
  6. P2 6:34PHIOskars Bartulis: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 11:33PHIDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 15:05PHIDaniel Carcillo: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 13:09NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 13:09PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 13:09NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 13:09PHIArron Asham: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 15:14NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
  14. P3 15:14NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 15:14PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking5 min
  16. P3 17:15NJDBryce Salvador: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 17:15NJDBryce Salvador: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 17:15PHIDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Powe
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDPHI
33Shots on goal25
3.8Expected goals2.8
71Shot attempts45
37Faceoffs won26
6Power plays2
22Penalty minutes29
19Hits29
10Blocked shots26
9Giveaways6
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.8 xGNJD 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1065 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.49 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.

PHI winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).