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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL0421318325
TOR0817114229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:18ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:04ATLEvgeny ArtyukhinAssists: Marty Reasoner, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 17:43TORViktor StalbergAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P3 3:47TORViktor StalbergAssists: Christian Hanson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:44ATLNik AntropovGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey, Maxim Afinogenov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 6:31ATLBryan Little: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:20TORColton Orr: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 12:46TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min
  4. P3 18:00ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLTOR
25Shots on goal29
1.9Expected goals1.7
50Shot attempts56
25Faceoffs won24
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
28Hits15
16Blocked shots14
6Giveaways8
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 1.7 xGATL 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #413 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.56 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).