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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Ottawa Senators 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)

Away

Ottawa Senators

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.

WSH winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
OTT3130121412531
WSH142101601421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:24OTTPeter ReginAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
  2. P1 3:01WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Jose Theodore · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 4:31OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P1 16:06OTTChris CampoliAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 12:04WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
  6. P2 12:58WSHMike GreenAssists: Tom Poti, Jason Chimera · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
  7. P3 0:24WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Eric Fehr · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
  8. P3 5:13OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
  9. OT 4:41OTTAlex KovalevPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:53OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 3:46WSHMatt Bradley: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:36OTTErik Karlsson: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 5:01OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 8:55WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 14:28OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 1:33OTTMike Fisher: Holding2 min
  8. P3 3:49WSHMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. OT 4:27WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Perreault
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTWSH
31Shots on goal21
3.2Expected goals2.5
50Shot attempts64
28Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
26Hits23
28Blocked shots8
15Giveaways16
8Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.5 xGOTT 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #45 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.35 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.

WSH winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).