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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 30, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Phoenix Coyotes 1, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX11401207133
VAN3811209429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:37VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:08VANMason RaymondGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:40PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P1 17:19VANHenrik SedinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:16VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 9:38PHXPetr Prucha: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 11:53VANSami Salo: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:42VANRyan Kesler: Boarding5 min
  4. P1 13:42VANRyan Kesler: Game misconduct10 min
  5. P1 13:42VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 13:42PHXDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 19:40PHXSami Lepisto: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 13:58VANKyle Wellwood: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 18:52VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 18:52PHXLee Stempniak: Diving2 min
  11. P3 4:32PHXMatthew Lombardi: Interference2 min
  12. P3 12:16VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wellwood won the faceoff against Fiddler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXVAN
33Shots on goal29
2.5Expected goals2.4
56Shot attempts47
30Faceoffs won32
5Power plays3
10Penalty minutes25
19Hits17
7Blocked shots13
5Giveaways9
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.4 xGPHX 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #925 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).