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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Washington Capitals 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3

Away

Washington Capitals

6

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.

PIT winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH11036212628
PIT09210110329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:00WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:42WSHMike KnubleAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P2 6:21PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Bill Guerin, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:42WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Alexander Semin, Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P2 9:55PITJordan LeopoldAssists: Sidney Crosby, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P2 18:00WSHMatt BradleyGWGAssists: Quintin Laing, David Steckel · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
  7. P3 0:49PITJordan LeopoldAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
  8. P3 2:37WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
  9. P3 19:59WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 17:05WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 5:35WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 11:18WSHEric Fehr: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 2:33PITBill Guerin: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 14:26WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHPIT
28Shots on goal29
2.6Expected goals1.6
43Shot attempts62
24Faceoffs won28
1Power plays4
8Penalty minutes2
21Hits35
18Blocked shots8
1Giveaways8
1Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 1.6 xGWSH 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #244 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.59 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.

PIT winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).