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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 8, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 3

Away

Buffalo Sabres

1

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.

BOS winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF16014012132
BOS010111213334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:00BUFDerek RoyAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:15BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:59BOSDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:35BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:01BUFChris Butler: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:20BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 15:41BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 17:36BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 4:30BUFAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
  6. P2 7:13BOSMatt Hunwick: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 10:17BUFToni Lydman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 8:25BOSVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 8:25BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 11:23BOSMatt Hunwick: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFBOS
32Shots on goal34
1.6Expected goals2.4
48Shot attempts59
28Faceoffs won37
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
15Hits19
9Blocked shots9
6Giveaways5
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.4 xGBUF 1.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #827 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.

BOS winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).