Thu, Apr 8, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 216 | 114 | 01 | 0 | 338 |
| TBL | 213 | 16 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mike Lundin · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:32TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Mike Lundin, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 3:33TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Kurtis Foster · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 12:44OTTNick FolignoPPAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P2 18:42OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 4:16OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 2. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 3. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 4. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 5. TBL Teddy Purcell scored
- 6. OTT Mike Fisher stopped
Penalties (24)
- P1 3:59OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:55OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:54OTTJarkko Ruutu: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:33OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16TBLNate Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:40TBLTodd Fedoruk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40TBLTodd Fedoruk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:17OTTMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:17TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:17OTTMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17TBLVictor Hedman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 8:52OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:52TBLMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:52OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:52TBLMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:49TBLAndrej Meszaros: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:34TBLRyan Malone: Holding2 min
- P2 17:24TBLTodd Fedoruk: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:24OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:30TBLStephane Veilleux: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:40TBLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:43OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:43TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).