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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 8, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:23Shot by Thompson, saved by Elliott
  3. P1 2:36Shot by Fedoruk, saved by Elliott
  4. P1 3:59Phillips: Hooking (2 min)
  5. P1 4:37Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott5v4
  6. P1 5:09Shot by Foster, saved by Elliott5v4
  7. P1 5:46Shot by Cullen, saved by Smith5v4
  8. P1 8:01Goal by St. Louis (Stamkos, Lundin)+15 pts WP
  9. P1 8:22Shot by Neil, saved by Smith
  10. P1 8:24Shot by Neil, saved by Smith
  11. P1 9:31Shot by Bochenski, saved by Elliott
  12. P1 10:18Shot by Kovalev, saved by Smith
  13. P1 11:05Shot by Sutton, saved by Smith
  14. P1 13:33Shot by Foster, saved by Elliott
  15. P1 14:09Shot by Carkner, saved by Smith
  16. P1 14:53Shot by Meszaros, saved by Elliott
  17. P1 15:52Shot by Neil, saved by Smith
  18. P1 16:37Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott
  19. P1 16:55Foligno: Too many men on the ice (2 min)
  20. P1 17:08Shot by Bochenski, saved by Elliott5v4
  21. P1 17:37Shot by Meszaros, saved by Elliott5v4
  22. P1 18:03Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott5v4
  23. P1 18:54Ruutu: Holding (2 min)5v4
  24. P1 19:32Goal by Purcell (Lundin, Malone)5v4+13 pts WP
  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:29Shot by Lundin, saved by Elliott
  28. P2 1:55Shot by Bochenski, saved by Elliott
  29. P2 2:33Cowen: Hooking (2 min)6v5
  30. P2 2:53Shot by Downie, saved by Elliott5v4
  31. P2 3:02Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott5v4
  32. P2 3:24Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Elliott5v4
  33. P2 3:33Goal by Stamkos (St. Louis, Foster)5v4+7 pts WP
  34. P2 4:16Thompson: Hooking (2 min)5v6
  35. P2 4:36Shot by Karlsson, saved by Smith4v5
  36. P2 7:40Fedoruk: Roughing (2 min)
  37. P2 7:40Fedoruk: Roughing (2 min)4v5
  38. P2 8:03Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Smith4v5
  39. P2 8:17Fisher: Roughing (2 min)4v5
  40. P2 8:17Hedman: Roughing (2 min)4v4
  41. P2 8:17Fisher: Fighting (5 min)3v4
  42. P2 8:17Hedman: Fighting (5 min)3v4
  43. P2 8:52Neil: Tripping (2 min)4v5
  44. P2 8:52Smith: Roughing (2 min)4v4
  45. P2 8:52Neil: Roughing (2 min)3v4
  46. P2 8:52Smith: Roughing (2 min)3v4
  47. P2 9:45Shot by Kovalev, saved by Smith4v5
  48. P2 9:49Meszaros: High sticking double minor (4 min)4v5
  49. P2 10:17Shot by Kovalev, saved by Smith3v5
  50. P2 10:32Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Smith3v5
  51. P2 10:45Shot by Kovalev, saved by Smith3v5
  52. P2 10:53Shot by Spezza, saved by Smith3v5
  53. P2 11:26Shot by Karlsson, saved by Smith3v5
  54. P2 12:02Shot by Kovalev, saved by Smith4v5
  55. P2 12:10Shot by Karlsson, saved by Smith4v5
  56. P2 12:42Shot by Cullen, saved by Smith4v5
  57. P2 12:44Goal by Foligno (Ruutu, Cullen)4v5+7 pts WP
  58. P2 13:34Malone: Holding (2 min)
  59. P2 14:18Shot by Cullen, saved by Smith4v5
  60. P2 17:24Fedoruk: Fighting (5 min)
  61. P2 17:24Carkner: Fighting (5 min)4v5
  62. P2 17:30Veilleux: Slashing (2 min)
  63. P2 17:39Shot by Cullen, saved by Smith4v5
  64. P2 18:24Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Smith4v5
  65. P2 18:42Goal by Spezza (Alfredsson, Karlsson)4v5+14 pts WP
  66. P2 0:00Period end
  67. P3 0:00Period start
  68. P3 0:46Shot by Ohlund, saved by Elliott
  69. P3 1:05Shot by Downie, saved by Elliott
  70. P3 1:14Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott
  71. P3 1:25Shot by Spezza, saved by Smith
  72. P3 1:49Shot by Karlsson, saved by Smith
  73. P3 2:14Shot by Thompson, saved by Elliott
  74. P3 3:35Shot by Phillips, saved by Smith5v6
  75. P3 3:40Tanguay: Tripping (2 min)5v6
  76. P3 4:16Goal by Fisher (Alfredsson, Spezza)4v5+24 pts WP
  77. P3 4:46Shot by Neil, saved by Smith
  78. P3 5:29Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott
  79. P3 7:27Malone: Hooking (2 min)
  80. P3 7:27Shot by Carkner, saved by Smith4v5
  81. P3 10:08Shot by Foster, saved by Elliott
  82. P3 11:05Shot by Neil, saved by Smith
  83. P3 11:11Shot by Winchester, saved by Smith
  84. P3 11:29Shot by Winchester, saved by Smith
  85. P3 16:43Shot by Carkner, saved by Smith
  86. P3 16:59Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Smith
  87. P3 18:06Shot by Regin, saved by Smith
  88. P3 18:24Shot by Regin, saved by Smith
  89. P3 19:33Shot by Kelly, saved by Smith
  90. P3 0:00Period end
  91. OT 0:00Period start
  92. OT 0:09Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliott4v4
  93. OT 3:45Shot by Foster, saved by Elliott4v4
  94. OT 4:13Shot by Lundin, saved by Elliott4v4
  95. OT 4:43Shot by Carkner, saved by Smith4v4
  96. OT 4:43Carkner: Roughing (2 min)4v4
  97. OT 4:43Downie: Roughing (2 min)4v4
  98. OT 4:59Shot by Ohlund, saved by Elliott3v3
  99. OT 5:00Period end
  100. SO Period start
  101. SO Shot by Stamkos, saved by Elliottother
  102. SO Shot by St. Louis, saved by Elliottother
  103. SO Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Smithother
  104. SO Goal by Purcell, unassistedother
  105. SO Period end
  106. SO Final