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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 8, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Minnesota Wild 2, Calgary Flames 1 (SO)

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.

CGY winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MIN160807032224
CGY01419010000133

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:03MINChuck KobasewPPAssists: Casey Wellman, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:23CGYNigel DawesAssists: David Moss, Craig Conroy · Slap, 0.53 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
  2. 2. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
  3. 3. MIN Brent Burns scored
  4. 4. CGY Nigel Dawes stopped
  5. 5. MIN Antti Miettinen scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 10:55CGYSteve Staios: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P2 4:53CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:50MINBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 14:37CGYSteve Staios: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 19:26MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
  6. P3 0:45MINGreg Zanon: Interference2 min
  7. P3 6:42MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
  8. P3 6:42CGYCory Sarich: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 6:42MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 8:21MINNate Prosser: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 10:16CGYRobyn Regehr: Boarding2 min
  12. P3 11:02CGYJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCGY
24Shots on goal33
1.9Expected goals4.0
35Shot attempts58
27Faceoffs won25
5Power plays5
12Penalty minutes12
18Hits14
17Blocked shots8
8Giveaways12
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 4.0 xGMIN 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #737 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.38 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.

CGY winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).