Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Buffalo Sabres 5, Ottawa Senators 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

5

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF2132817528
OTT0911219230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:14BUFThomas VanekAssists: Adam Mair, Matt Ellis · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:38BUFThomas VanekAssists: Derek Roy, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 7:43OTTChris NeilAssists: Peter Regin, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:57BUFThomas VanekGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–1
  5. P2 13:12BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Derek Roy, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.32 xG4–1
  6. P3 10:16BUFDerek RoyAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.27 xG5–1
  7. P3 13:20OTTShean DonovanAssists: Zack Smith, Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.30 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:32OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 2:35BUFRaffi Torres: Interference2 min
  3. P1 14:05BUFJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 15:56OTTPeter Regin: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 3:29BUFThomas Vanek: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P2 8:57OTTAndy Sutton: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
  7. P2 9:44BUFTim Kennedy: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 11:57OTTJarkko Ruutu: Boarding2 min · PPG
  9. P2 11:57BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 11:57OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 15:06OTTMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 0:38BUFPaul Gaustad: Boarding2 min
  13. P3 0:38OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 0:38BUFPaul Gaustad: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 8:09OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFOTT
28Shots on goal30
3.3Expected goals2.7
50Shot attempts55
25Faceoffs won30
5Power plays6
16Penalty minutes14
12Hits13
12Blocked shots10
8Giveaways11
8Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.7 xGBUF 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #699 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).