Fri, Oct 8, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 212 | 04 | 11 | 428 |
| NJD | 211 | 15 | 013 | 01 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 7:13NJDZach PariseAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 11:16DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Mark Fistric · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:02DALLoui ErikssonAssists: James Neal, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P2 10:22NJDJason ArnottPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 11:38DALBrad RichardsAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 1:36DALLoui ErikssonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:44DALSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 3:44NJDMark Fraser: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:46NJDRod Pelley: Holding2 min
- P1 18:12DALSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:12NJDMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:53DALSteve Ott: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Burish13:39
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal13:25
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Petersen – Sutherby – Segal5:52
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Wandell – Benn8:37
xG 0.39–0.63 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen15:12
xG 0.97–0.62 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Robidas – Grossmann15:43
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Fistric15:42
xG 0.32–1.27 (20%)attempts 7–13goals 1–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Zubrus – Clarkson12:11
xG 1.12–0.39 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Zajac15:40
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Elias12:34
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fraser9:27
xG 0.96–0.12 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Urbom6:46
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- White – Taormina13:34
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).