Fri, Oct 8, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 0, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 09 | 06 | 021 |
| DET | 212 | 27 | 024 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 5:35DETMike ModanoAssists: Daniel Cleary, Brad Stuart · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 5:29DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 16:55DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 9:08ANABobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:04ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:04DETRuslan Salei: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04DETTomas Holmstrom: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:04ANAAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:41DETPavel Datsyuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:41DETHenrik Zetterberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07ANAGeorge Parros: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:03DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:23ANABobby Ryan: Interference2 min
- P3 16:23ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:23DETBrad Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:01ANADan Sexton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:36ANAPaul Mara: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan10:47
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Parros – Chipchura – Sexton4:41
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Marchant – Bodie – Beleskey5:07
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake7:41
xG 0.12–0.24 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Mikkelson7:30
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Sutton – Visnovsky11:27
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Mara – Fowler13:00
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg8:23
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler8:14
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm6:27
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen10:53
xG 0.21–0.29 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Rafalski3:20
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Rafalski – Kronwall3:07
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Salei – Stuart2:20
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).